This week in 30 seconds. Then read on for the detail.
Two big dates are coming up. The Budget is next Wednesday, 28 October, and the Bank of England makes its next rate decision a week later, on 5 November. This week's inflation figure makes that second date matter a lot more.
Inflation jumps to 3.5% Confirmed
On 21 October the Office for National Statistics said inflation rose to 3.5% in September, up from 3.1% in August and higher than expected. The biggest reason was fuel. Petrol and diesel prices were up almost 30% on a year ago.
Bank Rate is currently 3.75%. When inflation moves the wrong way, the Bank's usual answer is to raise rates. Economists now say a rise in November is "firmly on the table", and some expect another one after that.
What a rate rise means for you Watch
It depends on what type of mortgage you have. Here is a simple example, assuming the Bank raises rates by a quarter of a percent, from 3.75% to 4%:
| Your mortgage | What happens |
|---|---|
| Tracker | Your rate goes up by the same amount, usually from the next payment or the one after. On a £200,000 mortgage over 25 years, 4.75% going to 5% takes the payment from about £1,140 to £1,169, roughly £29 a month more, or about £350 a year. |
| Standard variable rate (SVR) | Your lender decides. Most pass a rise on, often in full, but they don't have to and the timing varies. |
| Discount rate | This is a discount off the lender's SVR, so it moves when the SVR moves. |
| Fixed rate | Nothing changes until your deal ends. The catch is that new fixed rates have already gone up, so the real cost lands when you need your next deal. |
So if you are on a fixed rate, the date that matters is not 5 November. It is the date your deal ends.
Fixed rate ending in the next year?
Put in your balance, or just what you pay now. It shows what your new payment could be at today's rates.
Work out my new payment →What to do this week
- Fix ending in the next six months? Secure your next rate now. Most lenders let you lock in a new deal up to six months before your current one ends, and you keep paying your current rate until then. If rates fall before it starts, you can usually switch to the cheaper deal.
- Don't wait for the perfect deal. Moneyfacts says the average mortgage deal now stays on sale for just 13 days. Good rates are disappearing fast.
- On a tracker or SVR? Check what your payment would be if rates rise a little more, and whether a fixed rate would give you more certainty. Our fixed vs tracker guide explains the trade off.
The Budget, Wednesday 28 October: rumoured or confirmed?
There are plenty of stories about what the Budget might contain. Very little is actually confirmed. Here is where things stand before the Chancellor gets to his feet:
| What | Where it stands |
|---|---|
| Income Tax, VAT and employee National Insurance rates | Confirmed The government has committed to keeping the rates the same. |
| Income Tax thresholds | Confirmed Frozen until April 2031, so more of any pay rise is taxed. |
| Big stamp duty changes | Ruled out Sweeping changes have been ruled out for this Budget. |
| "Mansion tax" on homes worth £2m or more | Already planned Due from April 2028 in England. Reports of cutting the threshold to £1.5m now look unlikely. |
| Your First Home scheme for new builds | Details due Announced in September: a 2.5% deposit plus a government equity loan of up to 20%. The income and price limits are expected in the Budget. |
| Higher tax on banks | Rumoured Reported in the press, not confirmed. |
| Extra help with energy bills | Rumoured Reports of an extra £100 on the Warm Home Discount. |
| Fuel duty freeze | Rumoured Reported, not confirmed. |
| Capital gains tax | Rumoured Conflicting reports. A big rise looks unlikely, a smaller one is still possible. |
With government borrowing running above forecast, don't expect big giveaways. Next Saturday we will cover what the Budget actually changed for your mortgage.
If something happened to you, could your family keep up the mortgage?
With payments going up, it is worth asking a simple question. If you couldn't earn tomorrow, who would pay the mortgage?
Try these three quick checks:
- If you died, would the mortgage be paid off, or would your family have to keep paying it? Life cover is the usual way to clear it. Check how much cover you have, and that it still matches what you owe.
- If you were too ill to work for six months, how long would your savings last? Check what your employer pays when you're off sick, and for how long. Statutory Sick Pay alone won't cover most mortgage payments. Income protection pays a monthly income while you can't work.
- If you were diagnosed with a serious illness, could you take time off without worrying about money? Critical illness cover pays a lump sum on diagnosis of a condition the policy covers.
Many people have some cover through work, such as death in service. It is worth finding out exactly what it pays, because it usually stops if you change jobs. Our mortgage protection guide and could you pay your mortgage if you couldn't work? explain the options in plain English.
That is the week. Two big moments are coming: the Budget on 28 October and the Bank's decision on 5 November, and we will cover both. If you know someone whose fixed rate ends soon, send them this page.
General information only, not personal advice. Speak to a qualified adviser before making any decisions. Figures correct at the time of writing (23 October 2026) and may change quickly. The repayment example is illustrative only, calculated on a £200,000 capital and interest mortgage over 25 years, and assumes a 0.25% rise. Your own figures will differ. Mortgage rates are subject to lender criteria and can change. Budget items are based on government statements and press reports before the Budget and may change on the day. Protection cover depends on your health, circumstances and the policy terms. Policies have exclusions. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
Sources: ONS, Consumer price inflation, September 2026 (21 October 2026), PA, interest rate hike "firmly on table" (21 October 2026), The Intermediary, Moneyfacts product shelf life (19 October 2026), Price Bailey, Budget 2026: confirmed, ruled out and still in play (21 October 2026), Evening Standard via AOL, Budget 2026 leaks and rumours (19 October 2026), Bank of England, upcoming MPC dates.